Key Takeaways

The global financial market in September 2025 is bracing for a widely anticipated but still uncertain monetary policy shift. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on September 18th, with the market not only widely expecting the start of a new rate-cutting cycle but also paying unprecedented attention to the magnitude of the cut and its guidance on future policy direction. This meeting is not only a crucial turning point in monetary policy but also the beginning of an expectation of comprehensive monetary policy stimulus amid weak economic data and increased political intervention, which will lead to a shift in the pricing logic of major assets in the future.

Rate Cut Expectations and Asset Impact

Amid rate cut expectations, the trajectory of major assets shows significant structural divergence, and rate cuts of different magnitudes will guide asset prices to different paths. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points, the dollar is expected to be under moderate pressure, the US Treasury yield curve will steepen, stocks will receive a boost from sentiment but the space will be limited by earnings, and industrial metals will be relatively stable. If the rate cut is unexpectedly 50 basis points, it may trigger a rapid weakening of the dollar and a comprehensive decline in interest rates, increased upward momentum for industrial metals and stocks, and increased market volatility.

Precious Metals and Rate Cut Scenarios

Rate cut expectations have already been partially priced into current precious metals pricing, so the magnitude and tone of the policy upon implementation are crucial. If interest rates are cut by only 25 basis points and no further easing signals are transmitted, there may be a short-term adjustment in gold prices similar to "buy on expectation and sell on fact," and the decline in silver prices may be deeper due to industrial attributes. However, if the dot plot shows that there is room for rate cuts during the year, or Powell's speech is more dovish, gold and silver prices will resume their rise after adjustment. If interest rates are cut directly by 50 basis points, gold and silver prices are expected to launch a new round of rallies, especially silver, which has greater flexibility driven by speculation and the need to compensate for the increase.

Trading Opportunities Under Expected Discrepancies

Investors can pay attention to trading opportunities for expected discrepancies in the market after the rate cut is implemented. If there is a technical pullback in gold prices due to "realization of expectations," this may be a good medium-to-long-term planning window. For silver strategies, you can pay attention to the volatility opportunities brought about by gold-to-silver ratio corrections. In the context of the shift in monetary policy and concurrent structural risks, precious metals remain an important allocation option in modern investment portfolios, helping to reduce overall volatility and hedge against tail risks, posing a new shock to the traditional pricing logic of major assets in the context of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle.