RIP Art Cashin, the best of market commentators. He had unrivalled market knowledge and a knack for telling a good story in his notes. Here’s an excerpt from one I remember from around this time of year in 2019, just before the Covid pandemic changed a whole lot for so long.
Watch the yield. The Bank of England warns that a sharp rise in bond yields from “a sudden crystallisation of geopolitical tensions” would cause “significant losses” for non-bank institutions such as pension funds and hedge funds, forcing them to sell assets, further amplifying the hit.
US Employment is one of the most awaited data this week, and it is very likely to drive market sentiment across all kinds of assets in the financial market.
France’s government may fall – the premium for French government bonds is at the highest since the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis.
Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon. Meanwhile, reports indicate that Trump will consider direct talks with Kim Jong Un.
The Hunt brothers thought silver would act as a great inflation hedge like gold. So, they cornered the market – buying up large amounts of silver contracts on leverage to drive up the price between 1973 and 1979.
Flash Eurozone inflation figures are expected to confirm that the European Central Bank will cut rates again at its December meeting. Elsewhere, US GDP figures for the third quarter will be released along with minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting.
European stock markets continue to tread water. The major bourses are a little higher early on Wednesday but not great shakes.
Gold is firmer for a second day as the dollar retreats on slightly softer Treasury yields. Bitcoin is firming up above $91k.
Top Trumps: The search for the key Treasury position continues. Trump has added former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and Marc Rowan, CEO of Apollo Global Management, to the mix for Treasury Secretary.
Real GDP per head is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in Quarter 3 of 2024, the ONS said today. This is a failed state.
The massive rally in technology stocks rests to some extent on Nvidia earnings due up on Wednesday.
Dogecoin surged after Donald Trump formally announced the creation of the Department Of Government Efficiency, which is to be led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy.
In his victory speech earlier, Donald Trump talked about paying down debt and cutting taxes. I guess the market would be right to think, ‘Well, which one is it gonna be?’
The fallout from the US election, Trump Trade, and the Federal Reserve decision continue to drive price action, but this week, the focus shifts to some more mundane economic data.
After about an hour of trade and time to digest the US election result, the risk is well bid: European indices are on the front foot, catching a ride with US futures on a strong play for equity markets on both sides of the pond.
Red Wave: Donald Trump has won, and the GOP have flipped the Senate and could take the House, too.
Markets swung a bit more decisively behind a Trump win in the midnight -1am period It seems some good news around Georgia and Florida is the cause – Georgia independents swung towards Trump – CNN exit poll. Florida is meanwhile going his way decisively.
You’ll see the media report ‘Iowa poll sees markets revise Trump trade’.
The US presidential election race reaches its conclusion on November 5th. Markets have apparently moved to price in a Trump victory, but the polling data suggest it remains, even to last, far too close to call.
