Morning Note: How Trump's Energy Plan and Global Market Trends Are Shaping Investments

Trump's Energy Plan Sparks Caution on Oil Prices

The introduction of the Trump Plan to expand petroleum and gas production is an ambitious one where a national energy emergency will be called for fast-tracking permits and rolling back environmental protections. However, the policy is unlikely to drive immediate investment or significantly alter U.S. production growth, though it may moderate prospective incoming declines in refined product demands. Nevertheless, investors remained cautious due to the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade policies.

(USOIL 4H Price Chart, Source: Markets.com)

From a technical analysis perspective, USOIL's current trend remains bearish, as indicated by the lower highs and lower lows within the descending channel. Recently, it broke through the rectangular support zone with significant bearish momentum. The price retested the zone once but was rejected, continuing its downward movement. Therefore, it is highly likely that the bearish momentum will continue, leading to a retest of the support zone below.

Ethereum Foundation’s Token Moves Spark Criticism

Reports show that the Ethereum Foundation has recently traded another 100 ETH for 336,475 DAI. It became somewhat perplexing when an employee of the foundation attempted to clarify things regarding the movement and sale of its tokens. Regardless of the foundation's intentions or even a bigger plan to dump vast amounts of ETH, these activities have drawn quite a negative impression amongst many holders and supporters. Critics argue Ethereum is losing to other blockchains, particularly Solana. Therefore, many suggest that Ethereum should stake its tokens rather than sell them into the open market to generate yields.

(ETHUSD 4H Price Chart, Source: Markets.com)

From a technical analysis perspective, the price has recently been moving within a diminishing triangle, as reflected by the smaller price movements. This indicates a more intense battle between buyers and sellers. The price is currently testing the upper boundary of this triangle. A breakout in either direction could result in an overall trend shift toward that direction.

New Zealand's Inflation Supports 25bps Rate Cut

The annual pace of inflation in New Zealand in the fourth quarter of 2024 remained steady, just slightly above expectations of 2% but well within the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target range of 1-3%. The CPI increased by 0.5% for the quarter, slightly lower than the 0.6% increase in the preceding quarter. The data pointed to price pressures remaining largely contained and supported expectations of a 50-basis-point rate cut at the central bank's February meeting.

(New Zealand’s Inflation Rate YoY, Source: Markets.com)

(NZD/USD 4H Price Chart, Source: Markets.com)

From a technical analysis perspective, the current trend of the NZD/USD currency pair remains bullish, as indicated by the higher highs and higher lows within the ascending channel. Recently, the price was rejected at the channel resistance. If the price breaks through the rectangular support zone downward, it is highly likely to push further down to retest the channel support below.