Morning Note: Stocks Hold as Fed Cautious; Bitcoin Soars; RBA CBDC Trials

Stocks Steady as Fed Holds Line, Nvidia Rallies

U.S. stocks held their ground after the release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from its June 17–18 meeting, which revealed that only a few officials anticipated rate cuts as early as this month. Most policymakers remained cautious about inflation risks, particularly those stemming from President Trump’s ongoing use of import tariffs to reshape global trade. While the administration has shown flexibility in its approach, markets recognise that current trade policies are subject to change at any time.

Despite the political uncertainty, investors seem largely unfazed. The initial fear that tariffs would lead to significant inflation and economic disruption has not materialised on a broad scale. Supporting market sentiment, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) shares rose 1.8%, briefly pushing the company's market cap above $4 trillion during the session, making it the first public company ever to reach that milestone, before settling at $3.9 trillion by the close.

(S&P 500 Index Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the S&P 500 index has been in a bullish trend since April 2025, as evidenced by the formation of higher highs and higher lows. Recently, it broke above the order block at the 6,100 – 6,140 level but has since been consolidating within the 6,215 – 6,285 range over the past few days.

If the price breaks below this consolidation zone in the near term, it may potentially continue to decline and retest the previous order block. Conversely, if it gains bullish momentum and breaks above the range, it could potentially continue to surge higher.

Bitcoin Hits Record High as Institutional Demand Surges

Bitcoin surged to a record high near $112,000 late Wednesday, fueled by rising risk appetite and sustained institutional interest as more traditional financial players continue to adopt the leading cryptocurrency. The Trump administration’s crypto-friendly stance has further boosted sentiment across digital assets, unlocking new capital inflows into the sector. Bitcoin’s momentum also lifted other cryptocurrencies, with Ether, the second largest by market cap, climbing to a one-month high of $2,794.95 before easing slightly to trade up 5.4% at $2,740.99.

The bullish wave extended to crypto-related equities. MicroStrategy, co-founded by prominent bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor, gained 4.7% to close at $415.41. Coinbase Global also saw a strong session, advancing 5.4% to $373.85, reflecting broader investor confidence in the digital asset ecosystem.

(Bitcoin Daily Price Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin has been in a strong bullish trend since April 2025, as indicated by the formation of higher highs and higher lows. Recently, it broke above the resistance zone of 90,000 – 110,000 with strong bullish momentum, although the previous daily candlestick retraced lower and closed within the zone.

However, at the time of writing, today’s candlestick price action shows that the price continues to maintain bullish momentum and push higher, breaking above the resistance zone again. This may suggest that the bullish trend remains intact and could potentially drive the price even higher.

Australia’s RBA Tests Digital Currency in Live Trials

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced on Thursday that it is taking a significant step forward in its exploration of a wholesale central bank digital currency (CBDC) through “Project Acacia.” For the first time, the initiative will involve live industry trials using real money and tangible assets. In collaboration with a wide range of partners, the project will test 19 pilot use cases involving actual money and assets, alongside five proof-of-concept trials based on simulated transactions.

The six-month trial will span various asset classes, including fixed income, private markets, trade receivables, and carbon credits. Proposed settlement mechanisms include CBDCs, stablecoins, and bank-issued deposit tokens, in addition to new applications for commercial banks' existing deposits held at the RBA. Platforms participating in the tests include Hedera, Redbelly, R3 Corda, Canvas Connect, and other compatible blockchain networks. A final report is expected in the first half of next year.

(EUR/AUD Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the EUR/AUD currency pair has been in a bullish trend since mid-May 2025, as indicated by the formation of higher highs and higher lows. Recently, the pair experienced a bullish correction after failing to close above the 1.8100 level. This may suggest an intense battle between bulls and bears in the short term. The price could potentially drop lower to retest the support zone between 1.7850 and 1.7890, which may help determine its next directional move.

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Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice. Trading cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets is restricted for all UK retail clients.