Week ahead: US inflation and jobs data centre stage

Trading desks in London will be quiet at the start of the week for the August Bank Holiday, but elsewhere it’s likely to be a busy start as markets flex following last week’s Jackson Hole summit. US and Eurozone inflation data may prove sticky and signal ongoing headaches for the Fed and ECB. The monthly nonfarm payrolls report is the major economic release on Friday, coming ahead of an extended weekend for the Labor Day holiday on Sep 4^th.

Here are the week’s key events:

Monday

Whilst some FX trading volumes may be a thinner thanks to a holiday in London, the week kicks off in earnest with the latest Australian retail sales data, followed up by German import prices and Eurozone money supply figures. Bundesbank president Nagel is also slated to speak, perhaps offering clues about the likely direction for the European Central Bank in September.

Tuesday

AUD traders will be paying close attention to Michele Bullock, who takes over the helm at the Reserve Bank of Australia in September. Her speech may offer some clues about the future path for the central bank. Elsewhere US house price data, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey and the latest JOLTS job openings report are all due up.

Earnings: NIO (NIO), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), HP (HPQ)

Wednesday

Inflation data from around the globe will be the main driver of price action for equities, bonds and currencies. Australia kicks things off, with the last CPI having edged slightly lower to 5.4% from 5.6%. Preliminary German and Spanish CPI inflation readings will offer clues for the rest of the Euro area, which has seen inflation decline to 5.3% from 8.6% at the start of the year. Also due up at the ADP jobs numbers and the second reading for US Q2 GDP, with the advanced estimate indicating the world’s largest economy expanded by 2.4% in the three months to the end of June.

Earnings: CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), Salesforce (CRM)

Thursday

China’s manufacturing and services PMI reports top the bill as investors grapple with signs of weakness in Asia’s largest economy and housing market. Eurozone inflation may prove stickier than the ECB would like, with, August’s latest PMI report showing headline rates of input cost and selling price inflation tick higher due in part to upward wage pressures. US core PCE inflation – the Fed’s preferred gauge – is the main event for the US session, having softened slightly in the prior month.

Earnings: Broadcom (AVGO)

Friday

China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI provides some more colour and maybe a bit more of an accurate picture of economic activity. Swiss inflation data is due at the head of the European session before the release of the final Eurozone PMIs. The main event is the US nonfarm payrolls, which though of late has been showing signs of job creation slowing down, still paints a picture of robust health in the US labour market. The US economy added 187k jobs in July, which was below expectations, but employment fell to 3.5%, around a 50-year low, and wage growth exceeded forecasts at +0.4%.