Isnin Sep 9 2024 12:03
4 min.
Volatile shock: It was a tough week for global equity markets and the US wobbled again. The S&P 500 index fell 4.3% for its worst week since March 2023, whilst the Nasdaq was 5.8% lower for its worst weekly performance since 2022. European stock markets are on the front foot this morning after a bruising start to September, which is the cruellest month for stocks.
Jobs data did not allay fears about the US economy, even if the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.2%. The headline number missed at 142,000 vs. 161,000 expected, whilst July was revised lower by 25,000 from 114k to 89k and June revised lower by 61,000 from 179,000 to 118,000. Average hourly earnings doubled to 0.4% month-on-month in August, from 0.2% in July, and came in hotter than 0.3% estimates. The report didn’t resolve the debate on 50 or 25 basis points. Treasury secretary Janet Yellen said the US economy is “deep into a recovery” and “basically operating at full employment”.
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The dollar trades broadly firmer this morning after coming off last week as the front-end Treasury yields fell. USDJPY briefly dipped below 142 on Friday but is north of 143 this morning. GBPUSD has retreated over the last couple of weeks from a high of 1.3260 to barely holding the big 1.30 support this morning.
Meanwhile, China CPI rose by 0.6% year-on-year vs .0.7% expected, while PPI remained stuck in deflation at -1.8% vs forecast decline of 1.4%.
Apple is set to launch the iPhone 16 at its autumn product event tonight with the tagline ‘It’s Glowtime’. These events are usually market-moving - and Apple's fall presentation is typically a sell-the-news type event. Share usually rise in anticipation and then fall after.
Apple stock’s lowest average returns occur during the month of the launches. Over the last 10 years, AAPL has averaged a loss of 3.5% in September. Investors are hopeful ahead of the launch, with the focus on Apple Intelligence integration into the iPhone 16 model.
Tomorrow it’s debate time. No hot mics and no studio audience may reduce the opportunity for the kind of hilarity we associate with an off-the-cuff Trump, but the US presidential election debate taking place in Philadelphia on Tuesday will nonetheless be of critical importance for the campaign outcome. Trump’s debate victory over Biden ultimately forced the president to step back in favour of Kamala Harris. Markets will want to see whether the debate moves the needle of the likely outcome and whether any new policy announcements are made.
Also, tomorrow OPEC is set to release its monthly report after a sharp fall in crude prices over the last week.
Sandwiched between last week’s nonfarm payrolls data and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, the latest US inflation report will be the major focus for economic data this week on Wednesday.
After a run of hotter-than-expected inflation prints at the start of the year, which kept the Fed “higher for longer”, the data has since turned more decisively in the Fed’s favour. CPI rose 0.2% in July, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.9%, its lowest since March 2021.
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