ADP Launches Weekly Job Data Amid Government Shutdown

As the government shutdown continues, ADP Research has announced the launch of a new series of weekly U.S. employment data, supplementing its regular monthly reports. The aim is to provide more frequent and detailed insights into the dynamics of the labor market.

A Deeper Dive into the Weekly Employment Data

The new data will focus on the four-week moving average of changes in total private sector employment. This data will be released every Tuesday at 8:15 PM Beijing time. According to an ADP statement, the average number of new jobs added in the four weeks ending October 11 was 14,250.

Background on Prior Data Sharing with the Federal Reserve

Notably, ADP previously provided weekly employment data to the Federal Reserve, helping policymakers understand the private sector labor market. However, ADP ceased providing this data after Fed Governor Christopher Waller cited the statistics in a speech on August 28. This data covers approximately 20% of the U.S. private sector workforce.

Questions Surrounding the Suspension of Data Sharing

The reason for the suspension of the data-sharing agreement remains unclear. Senator Elizabeth Warren has sent a letter to the company questioning the reasons for the move, and urging the company to make the data public, at least during the government shutdown.

Importance of Alternative Data During Government Shutdown

With government agencies responsible for compiling economic statistics halting the release of official data, the importance of external data sources is increasing. Other companies, such as LinkedIn Corp. and Revelio Labs, also offer valuable insights into the labor market.

Impact of Shutdown on Government Reports

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, responsible for publishing the government's monthly employment report, will likely have to delay the release of October employment data, which was originally scheduled for November 7. However, ADP will continue to release its monthly estimates, with the October report scheduled for November 5.

ADP Statements on the Importance of the New Data

Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, stated in a release: “For nearly two decades, we have provided our valuable labor market data to the public for free through the ADP National Employment Report. ADP’s weekly, near real-time employment data will provide a clearer picture of the labor market at this critical economic juncture.”

Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Reactions

Markets widely expect Federal Reserve officials to cut interest rates at this week's policy meeting, aiming to support the cooling U.S. labor market. Government and private sector data indicate that employers have slowed their hiring pace in recent months, and demand for workers has eased.

Recent Layoff Announcements

Although widespread layoffs remain limited, companies including Amazon, General Motors, and Applied Materials have announced plans for layoffs in recent weeks. ADP’s data, compiled in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, is based on weekly payroll data from over 26 million private sector employees.