Escalating Tensions Between Israel and Syria

In the wake of Bashar al-Assad's regime crumbling in Syria late last year, Israel seized the opportunity to undermine the military capabilities of one of its oldest adversaries. However, the current situation extends beyond merely capitalizing on Syria's weakness; it involves shaping the post-Assad political order to align with Israel's interests.

Israeli Demands and Red Lines

Israel has demanded that the new Syrian regime establish a demilitarized buffer zone south of Damascus, threatening military intervention to protect the Druze minority on both sides of the border. This approach puts Israel on a collision course with the new Syrian leadership, and recent sectarian violence has significantly exacerbated the situation.

Turkish Intervention and Erdogan's Accusations

Turkey's support for the interim Syrian government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa further complicates the situation. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has accused Israel of using the Druze issue as a pretext to destabilize Syria, stating, "The biggest problem in our region at this point is Israel's aggression."

Israeli Red Lines

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared that Syria has crossed "two red lines" warranting Israeli intervention. The first is sending troops into the area Israel is demanding as a buffer zone, and the second is allowing harm to come to the Druze, accusing the Syrian government of "slaughtering them."

The Druze as Leverage?

Israel's commitment to protecting the Druze presents an opportunity to display its military might to its weaker neighbor and exert greater control over the shared border. However, the question remains whether these attacks will halt the sectarian fighting.

The Interim Syrian Government's Stance

Although al-Sharaa was cautious in criticizing Israel at the beginning of his term, his tone has become more strident following recent Israeli attacks. He has accused Israel of "striking civilians and government infrastructure" to sabotage peace efforts.

Israel's Concerns About Border Stability

Israel's demand for a demilitarized zone in the south stems from its concerns about Islamist forces reaching its border, a matter made acutely sensitive since the 2023 attacks from Gaza.

The Difficulty of Containing the Situation

This week's events show how difficult it is to maintain border stability, with hundreds of Druze rushing across the border into Syria to defend relatives. This sudden influx overwhelmed Israeli authorities, forcing them to establish passage routes.

Questions About the New Syrian Regime's Capability

Security analysts raise questions about the ability of al-Sharaa's government to control the country's numerous armed factions and whether its Islamist ideology will overshadow the goal of rebuilding the nation. Yossi Kuperwasser, director of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, states, "There are two outstanding questions that I don't have an answer to. One question is: Is the new regime, led by Sharaa, capable of dealing with this problem? And the other question is: Are they interested in doing so? Again, that answer is completely unclear."