Ukraine Peace Talks Stalled: Did Trump's Threats Fail?

Donald Trump's ultimatum to Vladimir Putin appears to have done little to bring Russia and Ukraine closer to peace. A third round of direct talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials in Istanbul on Wednesday yielded almost no results, with the meeting lasting less than an hour. "We have made no progress on stopping hostilities or ceasefire," said Rustem Umerov, the senior Ukrainian official who led the Ukrainian delegation at the talks. He noted that multiple meetings and six months of efforts had not brought the two sides closer to ending the conflict.

Zelenskyy-Putin Meeting Proposed Again

Umerov said that Ukraine had once again proposed a meeting between President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin – but Russia has consistently been unwilling to accept this challenge. This stalemate highlights that Trump’s recent warnings have done little to push Russia into making concessions. Trump threatened last week to impose 100% tariffs on Russia’s major trading partners if a peace deal was not reached within 50 days and expressed a willingness to work with European allies to provide Ukraine with "Patriot" air defense systems.

Escalating Russian Attacks

This threat is the latest attempt by Trump to pressure Putin, but as the US president pushes for peace, Putin’s attacks on Ukraine are escalating. Trump stated during his 2024 campaign that he would quickly end the conflict after being re-elected. However, a series of meetings between Russian and Ukrainian officials in Istanbul and multiple phone calls between Trump and Putin have not yielded any substantial results.

Trump's Involvement

US government officials point out that the talks between Russia and Ukraine are taking place thanks to Trump’s efforts. White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said, "Under President Trump’s leadership, Russia and Ukraine are holding direct dialogue for the first time in many years," adding that Trump issued a threat because he wants to stop the bloodshed. Russia insists on its maximalist demands, saying that any negotiated end to the conflict must address the "root causes," namely reasserting dominance over Ukraine and forcing the West to withdraw its support. Meanwhile, Russia has made steady battlefield gains in recent weeks and has intensified its attacks on Ukrainian population centers.

Continuation of Diplomacy?

"At the moment, this is just a continuation of the diplomatic charade," said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. "At least on the Russian side, Putin is clearly not ready to accept an agreement that does not meet his terms." Analysts say that while Trump has expressed increasingly strong dissatisfaction with Putin’s continued attacks on Ukraine, he has not taken the necessary steps to pressure him to end the conflict. "He is likely to continue to stall and wait and see, rather than proactively pursue the only potentially viable strategy – helping Ukraine deplete Russian military power, preventing it from gaining any territorial gains, and thus reaching a peace agreement acceptable to Ukraine," Gabuev said.

Proposed Sanctions Bill

South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham has introduced a bill proposing tariffs of up to 500% on Russia and its trading partners, but Senate Republicans have temporarily halted the proposal from moving forward due to Trump’s opposition – with Trump assuring lawmakers that he would take action himself to punish Moscow. "The President has been deeply involved from the start of the conflict, so any decision regarding sanctions, the President wants to reserve his power and rights," said White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt. Imposing additional tariffs on Russia’s trading partners would escalate an already complex trade war – and Trump has backed away from threatening them several times before. The “Patriot” missiles that Trump promised would help strengthen Ukraine’s air defense capabilities, but they will not fundamentally change the balance of power in the war. Senior US and European officials have warned that the number of drones and missiles Russia is using to bomb Ukrainian cities far exceeds the supply of “Patriot” missiles that the West can provide to Kyiv. To stop Russian attacks, Ukraine needs to be provided with long-range missiles to strike Russian launch sites and airports deep inside Russian territory, but the United States has been reluctant to do so. Expectations were not high for a breakthrough in Wednesday's talks. Russia even downplayed its importance before the talks began. "We have no reason to expect any magical breakthrough," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the day before the delegations met (Tuesday).

Participating Delegations

Ukraine sent Umerov to the meeting - who served as Defense Minister when he represented Kyiv at the last round of talks in Istanbul in June, and this month Zelenskyy moved him to an advisory role as Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council. The Russian delegation was led by Putin’s hawkish aide and former Culture Minister Vladimir Medinsky. The day before the last talks in June, Ukraine launched a bold drone attack on Russian territory, destroying part of the Kremlin’s fleet of nuclear-capable bombers. This attack boosted Ukrainian morale, but Russia put forward a series of harsh conditions in the talks. Russia demanded that Ukraine recognize Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea and four other regions (including areas it does not occupy), and declare military neutrality. Ultimately, the two sides only agreed to exchange some prisoners of war and the bodies of the dead. In the weeks that followed, Ukraine faced wave after wave of Russian drone attacks, overwhelming its air defense systems. "Russia shows through its continued large-scale aerial attacks on Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure that it is not serious about negotiating," said Yevgeniya Gaber, a former foreign policy advisor to the Ukrainian government and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Turkey program.