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Trump's Russia Policy Shift: Rubio's Influence and Pivotal Role

6 min read
Table of Contents

Key Takeaways:

  • Cancellation of the proposed peace summit between Trump and Putin.
  • Imposition of new sanctions on Russia.
  • Pivotal role of Secretary of State Rubio in changing US policy.
  • Internal disagreements within the Trump administration on how to deal with Russia.

For months, U.S. President Donald Trump had resisted calls for new sanctions on Russia, believing he could strike a deal with Vladimir Putin to end the conflict in Ukraine. He even planned a quick peace summit in Budapest in the coming weeks.

But this week, things took a dramatic turn. Trump canceled those plans and went further, imposing his first direct sanctions on Moscow of his second term. "It's time," Trump said.

However, informed U.S. and European officials revealed that this sudden shift was also due to Secretary of State Marco Rubio's assessment. Rubio, known for his hawkish stance on Russia and describing Putin as a "gangster," felt that Moscow's position had not fundamentally changed.

These officials, who requested anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, revealed that Rubio had a phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, after which the planned face-to-face meeting was canceled. During the call, it became clear that the Kremlin was once again trying to stall ceasefire talks and prolong the conflict.

Rubio's influence in this shift in the administration's stance represents a more significant role being played by the top U.S. diplomat. As Trump's interim national security advisor, he has also advocated for a more aggressive approach to the Venezuela issue. His stance contrasts with the more moderate strategy towards Russia advocated by Witkoff, Trump's close friend and special envoy.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly rejected this account of Rubio's role.

She said: "President Trump has always been the commander-in-chief of foreign policy, and his agenda is being implemented by national security officials, such as Secretary of State Rubio and Special Envoy Witkoff, who represent a united team behind the President's 'America First' vision."

There is no indication that Witkoff, one of Trump's closest allies, has lost the President's trust on the Russia issue, or that his influence has diminished. This week he was traveling in the Middle East, overseeing the fragile ceasefire agreement in Gaza that Trump helped negotiate.

But some insiders said that Witkoff's discussions with Putin and other senior officials during the preparations for the previous Alaska summit led to confusion and gave the false impression that Moscow was willing to make concessions it did not intend to fulfill.

White House spokeswoman Kelly denied this claim. She said that Witkoff "made it clear to everyone" that he and Trump were working to achieve peace "on the basis of a complete and accurate understanding of all the implications".

Informed sources said that last August's summit was tense, as Putin insisted on negotiating on the issue of Ukrainian territory, which frustrated Trump and almost led him to withdraw from the summit. This time, Rubio took the lead in the preparations.

The U.S. State Department spokesman previously described Rubio's call with Lavrov as productive. When asked about Rubio's role in this matter, State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott said: "The entire team is completely united under the leadership of President Trump."

He said that those who hint otherwise are wrong. He added: "Saboteurs are pursuing selfish agendas through baseless lies." "The achievements made by President Trump and his team in the pursuit of peace have exceeded all expectations, and as the President said, this is largely due to the unprecedented success achieved by Special Envoy Witkoff."Despite the difficulties faced at the first summit, Trump agreed last week to meet again after a lengthy call with Putin. U.S. officials had hoped to capitalize on this diplomatic momentum after Trump was praised for brokering a truce between Israel and Hamas after two years of hostility.

But some insiders said that in recent days, Russia presented the United States with a proposal outlining its terms for peace with Ukraine, which reiterated old demands without anything new, including demanding that Ukraine give up more territory.

Liana Fix, a senior researcher at the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, said: "Last time, the United States did not realize that the Russian side was inflexible until the meeting was held in Alaska." "This time, they realized that before the meeting, and that's progress."On the Russian side, there was similar confusion. A person familiar with the Kremlin's thinking revealed that Russian officials believed after Trump's call last week that the U.S. President had agreed to their demands that Kyiv give up the remaining part of the strategically important Donbass region, and that Moscow would only make symbolic concessions in the territories.

But the same source said that one day later, in a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump reiterated his desire for a ceasefire along the current front line - an idea that Moscow had rejected before the Alaska summit. The source said that Lavrov stressed this disagreement in a call with Rubio on Monday.

By that time, the preparations for the summit had collapsed.

Although Rubio accompanied Witkoff in talks in Saudi Arabia in February when the administration first sought direct talks with Russia, his more direct intervention this time relieved many European officials. They said they had previously feared that the United States, under Witkoff's direction, might lean too heavily toward the Russian position, and thus put pressure on Ukraine to accept Moscow's demands.

For example, informed sources revealed that Witkoff again pressured the Ukrainian leader during Trump's meeting with Zelensky last week to agree to Putin's demands to cede Donbass.

On Wednesday, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Russia's largest oil producers, blacklisting state-owned oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil.

"Every time I talk to Vladimir, the conversation is good, but there is no progress," Trump told reporters after announcing the sanctions in the Oval Office on Wednesday, adding that the White House may arrange meetings in the future.

Nevertheless, Rubio left the door open for further communication with Moscow, including future meetings.

Rubio told reporters at Andrews Joint Base outside Washington on Wednesday evening, while preparing to travel to Israel and Asia: "If there is an opportunity to achieve peace, we are always willing to communicate. I think the President has repeatedly made it clear over the past few months that if we cannot make progress on a peace agreement, he will sooner or later need to take action, and today is the day he decided to take action."


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