US Government Shutdown Negotiations Accelerate

After nearly a month of the U.S. government shutdown, the atmosphere is finally shifting. A series of looming key deadlines, coupled with new external pressures, are injecting fresh urgency into bipartisan talks that have been stalled for weeks.

Deadline Pressure Changes the Dynamic

"I think [the negotiations] have picked up the pace, deadlines always have that magic to them," said Senate Majority Leader John Thune, referring to talks between rank-and-file members of both parties. Several senators under Thune, along with Speaker Johnson and other House Republican leaders, seem increasingly convinced that enough moderate Democrats are prepared to compromise – potentially as early as early next week.

Mounting Pressure Factors

They believe pressure is mounting due to the looming cutoff of food benefits, air travel delays, and a new statement from the largest federal employee union calling on lawmakers to end the government shutdown.

Democrats' Stance

Notably, Democrats have not publicly stated they are ready to compromise. When asked about a plan to end the government shutdown, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told reporters on Tuesday that he believes that after November 1, Republicans will face “even more pressure to negotiate with us.” But a growing number of Democrats, including staunch liberals such as Senator Dick Durbin and Senator Elizabeth Warren, have expressed support for passing stand-alone bills to mitigate the effects of the government shutdown.

Potential Next Steps

Republican leaders are quietly stepping up internal discussions about what to do next. So far, they are discussing a new temporary appropriations bill, with dozens of versions being discussed. According to five sources familiar with the matter, options include pushing funding issues back to around January 21, or even March. White House officials hope to delay funding issues as long as possible, preferably until December 2026. Republican hardliners like the idea, but members of the Appropriations Committee and some defense hawks disagree.

Complications of Available Options

"Every option is fraught with a huge pile of problems," said one Republican. Thune indicated that any temporary appropriations bill that expires before the end of this year would be unworkable. He said, "Yeah, there's no way we can get it done before December. I think that's a judgment based on the schedule."

Republicans' Proposals to Democrats

Republicans have privately proposed to Democrats that once the government reopens, the two parties will begin pushing spending bills – first a package including agriculture funding, and then a second batch including defense, labor, and health and human services. However, so far, this is not enough to move the Democrats.

The Healthcare Issue

All of this fails to address the Democrats' core concerns about the government shutdown: healthcare. But Thune threw out a new “carrot” on Tuesday, telling reporters that U.S. President Donald Trump is willing to meet with them as early as next week to discuss the expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies.