Several key economic releases are scheduled for the week of 4 – 8 August 2025. On Monday, 4 August at 0630 GMT, Switzerland will release its CPI m/m data, with June showing a +0.2% rise and July expected to remain steady. On Tuesday, 5 August at 1400 GMT, the U.S. ISM Services PMI for July will be released, following a 50.8 reading in June, indicating modest expansion. On Wednesday, 6 August at 0900 GMT, the Eurozone will publish its retail sales m/m for June, with expectations of a +0.3% rebound after a –0.7% drop in May.
The data flow continues on Thursday, 7 August, starting with Australia’s balance of trade at 0130 GMT and China’s at 0300 GMT. Australia is forecast to rebound to AUD 6.8 billion for June, while China’s trade surplus for July is expected to narrow slightly to 111 billion yuan. Later that day, at 1100 GMT, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, with markets expecting a cut from 4.25% to 4.00%. To close the week, Canada’s unemployment rate for July will be released on Friday, 8 August at 1230 GMT, with forecasts anticipating a rise to 7.2% from June’s 6.9%.
The most recent Switzerland CPI m/m figure is +0.2% for June 2025, slightly above forecasts due to seasonal increases in food and services. As the expected value for July is not yet available, we anticipate it to remain at +0.2%, reflecting stable energy prices, a strong franc, and weak domestic demand. Despite subdued inflation, modest price gains in certain sectors are likely to support a mild monthly rise. The data will be released on 4 August at 0630 GMT.
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The expected U.S. ISM Services PMI (non-manufacturing PMI) for July 2025 is not yet available at the time of writing. However, given the June reading of 50.8%, which is slightly above the 50.5% consensus, and with business activity and new orders drifting modestly higher while employment remains subdued, we expect a July print to be close to 50.8% again. The continuation of modest expansion in services, underpinned by cautious optimism, steady demand, and no major shocks, suggests stability rather than a sharp acceleration or contraction. The data will be released on 5 August at 1400 GMT.
(U.S. ISM Service PMI Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
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The Eurozone retail sales m/m figure for May 2025 came in at –0.7%, reflecting a sharp drop in consumer spending. However, the expected figure for June is a rebound to +0.3%, as analysts anticipate a modest recovery supported by improving consumer sentiment, easing inflationary pressures, and seasonal factors such as summer spending. The projected bounce suggests May’s decline was likely temporary, driven by one-off factors, with June’s outlook pointing toward stabilising consumption across the region. The data will be released on 6 August at 0900 GMT.
(Eurozone Retail Sales m/m Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
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Australia's balance of trade for May 2025 stood at AUD 2.238 billion, marking a sharp drop from previous months. For June, the expected value is a significant rebound to AUD 6.8 billion, driven by stronger export performance, particularly in commodities like iron ore and LNG, as global demand improved and prices stabilised. Additionally, a slight pullback in imports due to weaker domestic consumption may contribute to the widening surplus. The forecast suggests May’s figure was an outlier, with June expected to reflect a return to more typical trade dynamics. The data will be released on 7 August at 0130 GMT.
(Australia Balance of Trade Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
China's balance of trade for June 2025 was 114.77 billion yuan, and the expected figure for July is slightly lower at 111 billion yuan. This mild decline is likely due to seasonal trade fluctuations and a slight recovery in import demand as domestic consumption gradually picks up. While exports are expected to remain stable, increased import activity, especially in raw materials and intermediate goods, could narrow the surplus. The forecast reflects a balanced outlook, suggesting steady trade performance with no major disruptions. The data will be released on 7 August at 0300 GMT.
(China Balance of Trade Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
The Bank of England’s previous interest rate was held at 4.25%, but the upcoming decision on 7 August at 1100 GMT is expected to bring a cut to 4%. This forecast reflects growing signs of cooling inflation, slower wage growth, and weakening economic momentum in the UK. With headline inflation easing closer to the 2% target and consumer demand softening, markets anticipate the BoE may begin a gradual easing cycle to support growth while maintaining price stability. The data will be released on 7 August at 1100 GMT.
(BoE Interest Rate Decision Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
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Canada’s unemployment rate dropped to 6.9% in June 2025, reflecting a stronger-than-expected jobs report with employment rising by 83,000 positions, particularly in retail, manufacturing, and healthcare. For July, we expect a slight rise to 7.2%, as labour force participation is expected to remain elevated while employers hold back on hiring amid ongoing economic uncertainty and trade-related headwinds. The data will be released on 8 August at 1230 GMT.
(Canada Unemployment Rate Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
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