The week begins with Japan’s Upper House election on Sunday, July 20 (All Day), a major political test for PM Ishiba’s coalition, which risks losing its majority amid rising voter discontent. On Monday, July 21, at 12:30 GMT, Canada releases its PPI YoY for June, expected to jump to 2.5% from 1.2% due to rising input costs and a weaker CAD. The spotlight shifts to the U.S. on Tuesday, July 22, at 12:30 GMT, when Fed Chair Powell delivers a closely watched speech, likely addressing inflation, labour data, and the Fed’s rate path.
On Wednesday, July 23, BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida is scheduled to speak at 01:30 GMT, possibly signalling policy direction ahead of the July 30–31 meeting. Meanwhile, U.S. Existing Home Sales data is due at 14:00 GMT, expected to ease slightly. Thursday, July 24 features the UK S&P Composite PMI Flash at 08:30 GMT and the ECB rate decision at 12:15 GMT, with no change expected from the current 2.15% level. The week ends with key data on Friday, July 25, as UK Retail Sales (06:00 GMT) are forecast to rebound by 2.0% and U.S. Durable Goods Orders (12:30 GMT) are expected to cool to 2.4% after a sharp May spike.
Japan's Upper House election on July 20, 2025, is expected to be a major test for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s LDP – Komeito coalition, which risks losing its majority. Polls suggest the ruling bloc may fall short of the 50 seats needed to retain control, as opposition parties gain momentum amid public frustration over inflation and stagnant wages. A loss could lead to policy gridlock, weaken Ishiba’s leadership, and increase political uncertainty, with potential implications for fiscal policy and the Bank of Japan’s rate plans.
Canada’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.2% year-over-year in May, with June’s reading expected to accelerate to 2.5%. The projected increase is likely driven by rising input costs in key sectors such as energy, metals, and industrial materials, which have seen upward price pressure due to global supply constraints and a modest rebound in commodity demand. Additionally, a weaker Canadian dollar may be inflating import prices, further contributing to the higher PPI forecast. This data is set to be released on 21 July at 12:30 GMT.
(Canada PPI YoY Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
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Fed Chair Powell’s speech on July 22 at 12:30 GMT will likely focus on his assessment of the current U.S. economy and the Fed’s near-term policy outlook. Markets will be watching closely for updates on inflation, labour-market conditions, and whether incoming data supports potential rate cuts or further rate hikes. Given recent remarks, Powell may also address the impact of international tariffs and trade-policy uncertainty on inflation dynamics, as well as reiterate the Fed’s data-dependent approach in balancing its dual mandate.
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Fed watchers are expecting Deputy Governor Uchida’s speech on July 23 at 01:30 GMT to serve as the Bank of Japan’s final major public communication before its July 30 – 31 policy meeting. He is likely to discuss the BOJ’s evolving outlook on inflation, particularly cost-push pressures from food and energy, and how U.S. tariff uncertainties are weighing on Japan’s export-driven economy. Markets will be watching for any shift in tone signalling whether the BOJ is preparing to revise its inflation projections upward or pause further tightening, given persistent underlying inflation and external risks.
U.S. existing home sales came in at 4.03 million in May, with June’s figure expected to dip slightly to 4.00 million. The projected decline reflects continued pressure from elevated mortgage rates, which have dampened buyer affordability and kept many potential sellers on the sidelines. Limited housing inventory and high home prices remain key constraints, while cautious consumer sentiment amid economic uncertainty may also be contributing to softer demand in the housing market. This data is set to be released on 23 July at 14:00 GMT.
(U.S. Existing Home Sales Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
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The UK S&P Global Composite PMI Flash stood at 52.0 in June, with July’s reading expected to ease slightly to 51.7. The anticipated dip reflects a modest slowdown in both the services and manufacturing sectors, driven by softer domestic demand and lingering cost pressures. Business activity is still expanding, as indicated by the reading above 50, but at a slower pace due to cautious consumer spending, tighter financial conditions, and uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook post-election. This data is set to be released on 24 July at 0830 GMT.
(U.K S&P Global Composite PMI Flash Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
The European Central Bank’s (ECB) key interest rate currently stands at 2.15% and is widely expected to remain unchanged at the upcoming decision on 24 July at 12:15 GMT. This steady outlook reflects the ECB’s cautious approach as it monitors inflation progress and economic recovery across the eurozone. Holding rates allows the ECB to balance the need for price stability without overly tightening financial conditions, particularly amid fragile growth in parts of the bloc.
(ECB Interest Rate Decision Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
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UK retail sales fell by 2.7% month-over-month in May but are expected to rebound by 2.0% in June. The sharp recovery forecast reflects a likely bounce-back from May’s weather-related disruptions and an uptick in consumer activity driven by improved conditions and seasonal spending. Temporary factors, such as public holidays and promotional events, may have also supported June sales, while easing inflation has slightly lifted consumer sentiment and purchasing power. This data is set to be released on 25 July at 0600 GMT.
(U.K. Retail Sales MoM Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
U.S. durable goods orders surged by 16.4% month-over-month in May, with June’s growth expected to slow sharply to 2.4%. The anticipated deceleration reflects a normalisation after May’s unusually large spike, which was driven by a surge in aircraft and defence-related orders. June’s figure is expected to return to more typical levels, as core business investment stabilises and one-off volatility in transportation orders subsides. This data is set to be released on 25 July at 1230 GMT.
(U.S. Durable Goods Orders MoM Chart, Source: Trading Economics)
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