Morning Note: Trump Sticks with Starlink as Markets Await UK Job Data

Investors Await U.K Employment Data

The U.K. unemployment rate stood at 4.5% in March, with forecasts indicating it will remain unchanged at 4.5% for April. Meanwhile, employment change rose by 11,000 in March, and expectations for April point to a significantly higher increase of 80,000. These data are set to be released today at 06:00 GMT.

The unchanged unemployment rate reflects a stable labor market where job creation is roughly keeping pace with labor force growth. However, the sharp jump in the expected employment change from 11,000 in March to 80,000 in April may be attributed to a combination of seasonal hiring effects, delayed job postings being filled, and potentially stronger-than-anticipated economic momentum. Government policy support or easing in business conditions could also be contributing factors that boost hiring sentiment.

Additionally, it's possible that recent positive signals in GDP growth or improved consumer and business confidence have encouraged employers to ramp up recruitment efforts. Labor market forecasts also often incorporate revisions to previous data and forward-looking indicators like job vacancy trends and payroll data, which may justify the optimistic employment outlook for April without yet translating into a lower unemployment rate.

(GBP/JPY Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the GBP/JPY currency pair has been trending downward since November 2024, as evidenced by the formation of lower highs and lower lows within a descending channel. The pair has been rebounding from the lower boundary of the channel since early April and is now retesting the resistance zone between 196.20 and 196.70. If bearish pressure holds at this zone, the pair could potentially decline further to retest the support zone between 193.00 and 193.50.

Oil Rises on U.S.-China Trade Talk Optimism

Crude oil futures climbed to approximately $65.40 per barrel during the Asian trading session on Tuesday, marking their highest level in over two months. The gains were driven by investor optimism surrounding ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, which could reduce the risk of tariffs suppressing global energy demand. High-level talks between U.S. and Chinese officials began in London on Monday and were scheduled to continue into Tuesday. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent characterized Monday's discussions as a “good meeting,” while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called them “fruitful,” fueling hopes for a potential breakthrough.

In addition to trade optimism, geopolitical tensions continued to provide support for oil prices. Ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with stalled progress on a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal, added to market uncertainty. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has urged OPEC+ to increase production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August and potentially again in September. This raised concerns about a possible oversupply in the market, which could temper further price gains.

(Crude Oil Futures Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, crude oil futures have rebounded from the support zone between 55.30 and 56.10 and have been moving in a bullish trend, as indicated by the formation of higher highs and higher lows since early May 2025. The price broke through the resistance zone between 63.20 and 63.80 after facing multiple rejections previously. This valid bullish momentum could potentially continue, driving the price higher to retest the order block between 66.00 and 66.60.

Trump Backs Starlink Despite Musk Fallout

President Donald Trump stated on Monday that he has no intention of discontinuing the use of Starlink at the White House, despite recently announcing the end of his relationship with Elon Musk, the CEO of both Starlink’s parent company, SpaceX, and Tesla. "I may move the Tesla around a little bit, but I don't think we'll be doing that with Starlink. It's a good service," Trump told reporters, expressing continued support for the satellite internet provider.

This follows speculation last week that Trump might remove Starlink from White House use after a public falling-out with Musk. A White House official previously suggested that Trump was considering dropping the service, while a Tesla vehicle was spotted parked at the White House over the weekend. On Saturday, Trump stated he had no plans to reconcile with Musk, but by Monday, he softened his stance slightly, saying he wouldn’t mind if Musk reached out.

(Tesla Daily Share Price Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, Tesla’s share price has rebounded and been moving in a bullish trend since April 2025, as indicated by a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. However, it was recently rejected at the resistance zone between 352 and 364, which pushed the price lower. The stock has since found support at the swap zone between 274 and 286, forming a higher low. This significant bullish momentum may potentially drive the price higher to retest the resistance zone.

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Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.