Morning Note: Trump's Tariff Delays Boost Oil & Euro; New iPhone Tariff Threat

Is Trade Relief Enough to Support Crude Prices?

Oil prices rose slightly in early Asian trading on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump extended the deadline for trade negotiations with the European Union, easing concerns about potential U.S. tariffs on the bloc. The move helped allay fears of a broader economic impact and potential disruption to global fuel demand.

Despite the initial gains, further upside in oil prices was limited by expectations that OPEC+ may decide to increase production by an additional 411,000 barrels per day in July at their upcoming meeting. Market sentiment this week is likely to remain sensitive to headlines surrounding trade, tariffs, and ongoing fiscal concerns, which continue to serve as major variables for risk appetite and crude oil performance.

(U.S. Oil Daily Price Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, U.S. oil prices have been in a bearish trend since the beginning of January 2025, as indicated by the pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Currently, the price is retesting the swap zone at 59.50 – 60.30 and the resistance zone at 63.00 – 63.80. A decisive break above or below either zone could potentially signal the next move towards that breakout direction.

Euro Rallies as Trump Delays Tariff Threat on EU Goods

The euro strengthened after U.S. President Donald Trump unexpectedly extended his threat to impose 50% tariffs on European Union goods, offering a temporary reprieve amid his unpredictable trade policy. On Sunday, Trump pushed the deadline for trade negotiations from June 1 to July 9, following a request from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who stated that the EU needed more time to secure a favourable deal.

Despite the extension, Trump’s sudden policy shifts served as a stark reminder of how quickly the landscape can change. Analysts noted that investor sentiment is turning cautious, with capital increasingly flowing out of the U.S. and into European and Asian markets. This trend reflects growing concerns over a potential U.S. recession and its implications for a broader global economic slowdown.

(EUR/USD Daily Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, the EUR/USD currency pair has been in a bullish trend since mid-January 2025, as evidenced by the formation of higher highs and higher lows. Recently, it closed above the swap zone, indicating that bullish momentum remains intact and suggesting a potential move toward retesting the resistance zone at 1.1530 – 1.1570.

Trump Threatens 25% Tariff on iPhones Not Made in U.S.

Apple is facing a significant supply chain and pricing challenge after President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all iPhones sold in the United States unless the company shifts its manufacturing operations to U.S. soil. The warning, shared on Truth Social and later reiterated to reporters at the White House, marks another escalation in Trump’s ongoing campaign to pressure multinational corporations to localise their production.

Trump emphasised that he had previously informed Apple CEO Tim Cook of his expectations, stating that iPhones sold in the U.S. should be manufactured domestically, not in India or any other country. His remarks come at a time when Apple is actively expanding production in India to reduce its dependence on Chinese manufacturing, a move driven by rising geopolitical tensions and the lingering effects of pandemic-related disruptions.

(Apple Share Daily Price Chart, Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, Apple’s share price has been moving within a bearish channel, as indicated by a series of lower highs and lower lows. Recently, the price failed to form a higher high and was rejected at the resistance zone of 213 – 217, forming a triple top candlestick pattern that pushed the price lower. Currently, it is retesting the support zone at 191 – 194. If this zone fails to hold, it could potentially lead to further downside movement.

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Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.