Week Ahead: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Data in the Spotlight

Economic data releases begin on Monday, 30 June at 12:00 GMT, with Germany’s preliminary inflation rate for June expected to rise slightly to 2.2% from May’s 2.1%, driven by seasonal energy and service price pressures. On Tuesday, 1 July, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI is forecast to rise to 49.8 at 01:45 GMT, showing signs of stabilisation. At 09:00 GMT, the Eurozone flash inflation rate is expected to edge up to 2.4%, while the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, due at 14:00 GMT, may reach 50, suggesting a possible return to expansion.

The week continues with the Eurozone unemployment rate on Wednesday, 2 July at 09:00 GMT, expected to hold steady at 6.2%, and the U.S. ADP employment change at 12:15 GMT, likely rebounding to 90,000. On Thursday, 3 July, Switzerland’s inflation rate is expected to stay at -0.1% at 06:30 GMT, while U.S. non-farm payrolls at 12:30 GMT are forecast to slow to 100,000. The week wraps up on Friday, 4 July, with Switzerland’s unemployment rate at 05:45 GMT, expected to drop to 2.7%, and Eurozone PPI at 09:00 GMT, likely softening to 0.3%.

Monday, 30 June 2025: [12:00 GMT] Germany Inflation Rate YoY Preliminary June

Germany's preliminary year-on-year inflation rate stood at 2.1% in May. For June, the inflation rate is expected to edge slightly higher to 2.2%. The slight increase in the June forecast can be attributed to ongoing upward pressure from energy and service prices, particularly as seasonal demand rises during the summer. Additionally, while base effects from last year’s inflation are fading, they still contribute marginally to the headline figure. A mild acceleration in consumer spending and persistent supply-side bottlenecks in certain sectors may also be driving expectations slightly higher. This data is set to be released on 30 June at 1200 GMT.

(Ge rmany Inflation Rate YoY Preliminary Chart , Source: Trading Central)

Tuesday, 1 July 2025: [01:45 GMT] Caixin Manufacturing PMI June, [09:00 GMT] Eurozone Inflation Rate YoY Flash June, [14:00 GMT] U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI June

The Caixin Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3 in May, signalling a deeper contraction in China’s manufacturing activity. However, the index is expected to rebound to 49.8 in June, driven by improving domestic demand, gradual policy support from Beijing, and easing supply-side pressures. While external demand remains weak, a modest pickup in new orders and business confidence suggests that the sector may be stabilising, even if it remains just below the expansion threshold. This data is set to be released on 1 July at 0145 GMT.

The Eurozone’s flash inflation rate stood at 1.9% year-over-year in May, with the June figure expected to rise slightly to 2%. This modest increase is likely driven by persistent service sector inflation, wage growth pressures, and resilient consumer demand in certain member states. Additionally, while energy prices remain relatively stable, the gradual fading of favourable base effects from 2023 may contribute to the upward movement in the headline figure. This data is set to be released on 1 July at 0900 GMT.

( Eurozone Inflation Rate YoY Flash Chart , Source: Trading Central)

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.5 in May, indicating continued contraction, but the index is expected to reach 50 in June. This anticipated improvement reflects growing optimism around demand recovery, stabilisation in input costs, and a slight rebound in new orders. While challenges remain, including tight credit conditions and cautious inventory management, recent data suggest manufacturing activity may be nearing the threshold of expansion. This data is set to be released on 1 July at 1400 GMT.

( U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Chart , Source: Trading Central)

Wednesday, 2 July 2025: [09:00 GMT] Eurozone Unemployment Rate May, [12:15 GMT] U.S. ADP Employment Change June

The Eurozone unemployment rate held steady at 6.2% in April, and the same rate is expected for May. This stability reflects a resilient labour market, supported by steady service sector activity and government policies aimed at preserving employment. Despite moderate economic headwinds, businesses have largely maintained staffing levels, contributing to the unchanged forecast. This data is set to be released on 2 July at 0900 GMT.

( Eurozone Unemployment Rate Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The U.S. ADP employment change showed a gain of just 37,000 jobs in May, but June’s figure is expected to rise significantly to 90,000. The sharp rebound is likely driven by a recovery in hiring within the services sector, improved business sentiment, and a catch-up in employment growth following unusually weak figures in the prior month. Stabilising labour demand and seasonal factors may also contribute to the stronger outlook. This data is set to be released on 2 July at 1215 GMT.

( U.S. ADP Employment Change Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Thursday, 3 July 2025: [06:30 GMT] Switzerland Inflation Rate YoY, [12:30 GMT] U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls June

Switzerland’s annual inflation rate came in at -0.1% in May, and the same figure is expected for June, reflecting a continuation of mild deflationary trends. The persistent negative reading is largely due to subdued consumer demand, ongoing price stability in key sectors such as energy and food, and the strength of the Swiss franc, which keeps import prices low. Additionally, with limited wage pressures and cautious consumer spending, inflationary momentum remains weak, supporting the forecast for stable prices in the near term. This data is set to be released on 3 July at 0630 GMT.

( Switzerland Inflation Rate YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

U.S. non-farm payrolls rose by 139,000 in May, but the June figure is expected to slow to 100,000. This anticipated deceleration reflects signs of a cooling labour market, as businesses remain cautious amid tighter financial conditions and slower economic momentum. While employment remains resilient overall, reduced hiring in sectors such as manufacturing and retail, combined with efforts to control wage-driven inflation, may contribute to a softer job growth outlook. This data is set to be released on 3 July at 1230 GMT.

( U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Friday, 4 July 2025: [05:45 GMT] Switzerland Unemployment Rate June, [09:00 GMT] Eurozone PPI YoY May

Switzerland’s unemployment rate stood at 2.8% in May, with a slight decline to 2.7% expected in June. This marginal improvement reflects seasonal trends, as hiring typically picks up in the summer months, particularly in sectors like tourism, construction, and hospitality. Additionally, the Swiss labour market remains structurally strong, supported by a stable economy and low business insolvency rates, which help maintain low unemployment levels despite broader economic uncertainties. This data is set to be released on 4 July at 0545 GMT.

( Switzerland Unemployment Rate Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in April but is expected to slow to 0.3% in May. This expected moderation reflects easing cost pressures across energy and intermediate goods, as supply chains normalise and input prices stabilise. Additionally, weak industrial demand and subdued factory activity across key member states are likely weighing on producer pricing power, contributing to the softer PPI outlook. This data is set to be released on 4 July at 0900 GMT.

( Eurozone PPI YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

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