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Markets muted, Europe cautious as US closed for Labor Day
US markets shut for Labor Day holiday as investors eye nonfarm payrolls report due at the end of the week
A busy week but a relatively quiet day – US markets are shut for the Labor Day holiday. All eyes are on the nonfarm payrolls report at the end of the week. We should make Labor Day a market holiday in the UK too.
With markets all but certain the Federal Reserve is going to cut rates in September after Jay Powell’s dovish speech in Jackson Hole, the question is one of how fast and how deep does the US central bank need to go.
The disappointing July payrolls report helped spark a market correction in early August, after triggering the “Sahm rule” that has correctly predicted previous recessions. Subsequent revisions to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data suggests the labour market is even weaker than previously thought.
GDP data, however, suggests there is no need to go too big with the cut. Market pricing suggests the odds of a 50 basis points (bps) are at 31%, with 25bps at 69% and a full 100bps of cuts this year about 68% priced. I think 50bps suggests panic, which isn’t really how the Fed is feeling right now.
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Marknad
ETF:er
ETF:er
Råvaror:
Aktier
Valuta
Obligationer
Råvara
Index
Instrument
Porsche
Procter & Gamble
Roku Inc
Deere
Quanta Services
UniCredit
Rolls-Royce
Inditex
Deliveroo Holdings
Goldman Sachs
Coca-Cola Co (NYSE)
Infosys
Toro
ChargePoint Holdings Inc
Comcast
Chipotle
Campari
The Cheesecake Factory
Virgin Galactic
LVMH
Eni
Medtronic
ProSiebenSat.1
Qualcomm
BioNTech
SIG
Meta (Formerly Facebook)
Philip Morris
Visa
Schlumberger
SMCI
Plug Power
Nike
ADT
3D Systems
Pinterest Inc
Bristol Myers
Jumia Technologies
Broadcom
Upstart Holdings Inc
Salesforce.com
Amazon.com
Cinemark
Moderna Inc
AMC Entertainment Holdings
Air France-KLM
Glencore plc
Starbucks
Uber
Golar LNG
Pfizer
Palantir Technologies Inc
CrowdStrike Holdings
Mastercard
Blackrock
Vir Biotechnology
Toyota
Kuaishou
MerckCo USA
Cisco Systems
Porsche AG
II-VI
JD.com
Snap
JP Morgan
Lululemon
UPS
AIA
Deutsche Bank
Airbus Group SE
Zoom Video Communications
XPeng Inc
Trade Desk
AbbVie
Sartorius AG
Mondelez
Hammerson
CNOOC
Snowflake
Thermo Fisher
CCB (Asia)
Kraft Heinz
Unilever
China Life
eBay
Linde PLC
GameStop
UnitedHealth
ASOS
SAP
Barclays
Christian Dior
Wish.com Inc
AstraZeneca
FirstRand
SONY
CAT
Applied Materials
BlackBerry
ALIBABA HK
British American Tobacco
AT&T
Siemens
Diageo
Palo Alto Networks
Vipshop
Amgen
Prosus N.V.
ASML
Airbnb Inc
Lithium Americas Corp
JnJ
Wal-Mart Stores
Nasdaq
Exxon Mobil
McDonald's
Shopify
Hermes
Iberdrola
Peloton Interactive Inc.
Apple
Volkswagen
Marriott
Sea
Micron
Conoco Phillips
Morgan Stanley
Ford
Upwork Inc.
Nel ASA
Bank of America
Accenture
Santander
Abbott
Trump Media & Technology Group
Royal Bank Canada
UiPath Inc
Spotify
Fedex
LUCID
Anglo American
Allianz
Dave & Buster's
Shell plc (LSE)
Xiaomi
Adidas
Skillz Inc
HDFC Bank
Cellnex
Freeport McMoRan
Wells Fargo
PepsiCo
Berkshire Hathaway
Lockheed Martin
Coinbase Inc
HSBC
Target
Netflix
Vonovia
PayPal
DISNEY
Invesco Mortgage
Blackstone
Boeing Co
Lumentum Holdings
Canopy Growth
Beyond Meat
Block
Qorvo
Delivery Hero SE
Teladoc
Unity Software
PG&E
Microsoft
Gilead
Li Auto
Chevron
Naspers
BP
MercadoLibre.com
Alibaba
New Oriental
CarMax
Lemonade
Citigroup
Two Harbors Investment aration
Taiwan Semi
Total
Bayer
Marston's
Twilio
Home Depot
Oracle
Gen Digital Inc
Baidu
ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd
T-Mobile
Norwegian Cruise Line
ON Semiconductor
American Express
Macy's
Vodafone
L'Oreal
Tesla
Robinhood
Nio
Lloyds
Aptiv PLC
Novavax
Norwegian Air Shuttle
American Airlines
TUI
Annaly Capital
RTX Corp
NVIDIA
Adobe
General Motors
PETROCHINA
Aurora Cannabis Inc
Barrick Gold
Fuelcell
General Electric
Anheuser-Busch Inbev
Continental
Eli Lilly
F5 Networks
Etsy
Hubspot
easyJet
Telecom Italia
Ceconomy
Rio Tinto
AMD
Cameco
Arista
Tencent
British American Tobacco
DeltaAir
Verizon
Airbus
Lufthansa
Teleperformance
GSX Techedu
Rivian Automotive
Wayfair
IBM
Bilibili Inc
HSBC HK
Occidental
Lyft
IAG
Costco
Tilray
Fresnillo
Intel
ROBLOX Corp
BASF
Workday Inc
GoPro
DoorDash
Electrolux
Alphabet (Google)
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Kvantitet
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Filen ska vara mindre än
Beloppet måste vara en multipel av den lägsta lotsökningen
Tidigare resultat är inte en tillförlitlig indikator på framtida resultat.
Alla positioner på instrument som är noterade i en annan valuta än din kontovaluta kommer också att omfattas av en omräkningsavgift vid positionsutgången.
Stock markets recover after scare in early August
European stock markets turned cautious early on Monday but are coming off record highs hit last week in the wake of some soft Eurozone inflation data. Wall Street also rallied on Friday as the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation came in cool.
In general stock markets recovered well in August after the big wobble at the start of the month. The DAX set a fresh record in August, as did the wider Eurostoxx 600 and the Dow Jones industrials. The S&P 500 index closed higher on the month by more than 2%, notching its fourth straight winning month. The FTSE 100 moved to within a whisker of its all-time high – 8,474.41 set on May 15th.
Eurozone inflation falls, PMIs soft, case for another European Central Bank rate cut building
Eurozone inflation dropped to a three-year low of 2.2% in August, down from 2.6% in July. The core rate fell to 2.8% in August from 2.9% in July. US PCE inflation was in line at +2.5% and the core was a little light at 2.6% vs 2.7% expected. Good news for the Fed is it pins its colours to a rate cut in September.
Eurozone manufacturing PMI data out on Monday was very soft and continues – along with the inflation data – to build the case for the ECB to cut again in September. Soft Chinese manufacturing data showing activity at a 6-month low in August heaped pressure on basic resources stocks early on Monday in London.
Rise of the right in Europe
A big theme this year on the Overleveraged podcast has been the rise of the right in Europe and what it could mean in terms of fragmentation of the political centre. President Emmanuel Macron is finding out how tough it is to go against the electorate and not look like a tyrant. And in Germany, too, things are changing. The “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) won Thuringia, the first time a far-right party has topped a German state election since the Second World War. The party came second in Saxony.
Elsewhere, the dollar is coming off a bit this morning after rallying for three straight days. Note the bullish MACD crossover.
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Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.
SV
