Week Ahead: ECB Interest Rate Decision and U.S. NFP in Spotlight

The week begins with Switzerland's retail sales data on Monday, 2 June (06:30 GMT), expected to show moderate YoY growth of 1.9% and a stronger MoM rise of 1.0%. Later that day at 14:00 GMT, the U.S. will present its ISM Manufacturing PMI, where April’s reading of 48.7 is anticipated to slightly improve to 49.6 in May, although still below the 50 expansion threshold.

Then on Tuesday, 3 June 2025, several key releases are scheduled: China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI at 01:45 GMT (April at 50.4 with May forecast dropping to 49.5), Switzerland’s Inflation Rate YoY at 06:30 GMT (with April at 0.0% and modest expectations for May), and the Eurozone’s Inflation Rate YoY Flash at 09:00 GMT (declining slightly from April’s 2.2% to an expected 2.1% in May). At 14:00 GMT the same day, the U.S. will also release its JOLTs Job Openings data.

On Wednesday, 4 June, Australia’s GDP will be released at 01:30 GMT, with growth expected to rise to 1.7% YoY. Later, the Bank of Canada’s rate decision at 13:45 GMT is likely to hold steady at 2.75%. Thursday, 5 June brings Eurozone PPI (09:00 GMT) and the ECB’s rate decision (12:15 GMT), where a rate cut to 2.15% is expected. The week wraps up on Friday, 6 June, with Eurozone retail sales (09:00 GMT), and key labour data from the U.S. and Canada (12:30 GMT), both signalling a cooling job market. Broadcom (AVGO) is also set to report earnings.

Monday, 2 June 2025: [06:30 GMT] Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, [14:00 GMT] U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI

Switzerland's retail sales rose by 2.2% year-over-year (YoY) and 0.6% month-over-month (MoM) in March, while the expected figures for April are 1.9% YoY and 1.0% MoM. The slight moderation in the YoY forecast likely reflects a high base from April 2024, making annual comparisons less favourable. Additionally, softer consumer sentiment amid lingering inflation or global uncertainty could be weighing on expectations. However, the stronger MoM projection suggests improved short-term momentum, possibly driven by seasonal factors such as better weather, tourism activity, or retail promotions. This data is set to be released on 2 June at 0630 GMT.

(Switzerland Retail Sales YoY Chart , Source: Trading Central)

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.7 in April, reflecting continued contraction in the sector, though at a slightly slower pace compared to earlier readings. The forecast for May is 49.6, suggesting a mild improvement but remaining below the 50 threshold that signals expansion. This expectation likely stems from stabilising input costs, gradual improvement in supply chain conditions, and resilient domestic demand, all of which may be helping to ease the downward pressure on manufacturing activity. This data is set to be released on 2 June at 1400 GMT.

( U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Chart , Source: Trading Central)

Tuesday, 3 June 2025: [01:45 GMT] Caixin Manufacturing PMI, [06:30 GMT] Switzerland Inflation Rate YoY, [09:00 GMT] Eurozone Inflation Rate YoY Flash, [14:00 GMT] U.S. JOLTs Job Openings

China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI registered 50.4 in April, indicating a slight expansion in factory activity. However, the expected reading for May is 49.5, signalling a potential return to contraction. This downward revision likely reflects growing concerns over weak global demand, ongoing pressures in the property sector, and subdued business confidence. Despite modest growth in April, the broader economic environment remains fragile, with soft export orders and limited domestic stimulus weighing on manufacturing momentum. This data is set to be released on 3 June at 0145 GMT.

Switzerland's inflation rate for April was flat at 0.0% both year-over-year and month-over-month, and the expected figure for May is projected to remain near 0% or edge slightly higher. This subdued outlook reflects persistent disinflationary pressures driven by stable energy prices, a strong Swiss franc keeping import costs low, and cautious domestic demand. Additionally, the Swiss National Bank’s earlier rate cuts have not yet sparked significant price pressures, and wage growth remains moderate. As a result, inflation is expected to stay muted in May, aligning with Switzerland’s broader trend of price stability. This data is set to be released on 3 June at 0630 GMT.

(Switzerland Inflation Rate YoY Chart , Source: Trading Central)

The Eurozone's flash inflation rate for April came in at 2.2% year-over-year (YoY), while the expected figure for May is slightly lower at 2.1%. This marginal decline likely reflects easing price pressures in core components such as energy and food, which have been stabilising after previous volatility. Additionally, base effects from last year’s higher inflation levels may be contributing to the softer YoY reading. With monetary policy remaining relatively tight and demand gradually normalising, inflation is expected to continue trending closer to the European Central Bank’s 2% target. This data is set to be released on 3 June at 0900 GMT.

(Eurozone Inflation Rate YoY Flash Chart , Source: Trading Central)

(U.S. JOLTs Job Openings Chart , Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: CrowdStrike (CRWD)

Wednesday, 4 June 2025: [01:30 GMT] Australia GDP Growth Rate YoY, [13:45 GMT] BoC Interest Rate Decision

Australia's GDP growth rate came in at 1.3% year-over-year in the last quarter, while the current quarter is expected to show an improved growth rate of 1.7%. This anticipated acceleration reflects a combination of factors, including resilient consumer spending, a recovery in export volumes, particularly from the resources sector and continued government infrastructure investment. Additionally, easing inflation and a pause in interest rate hikes may be supporting household and business confidence, contributing to a modest pickup in economic activity. This data is set to be released on 4 June at 0130 GMT.

(Australia GDP Growth Rate YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The Bank of Canada's interest rate was held steady at 2.75% during its last meeting, and the upcoming decision is also expected to maintain the rate at 2.75%. This steady outlook reflects the central bank’s cautious approach as it assesses the balance between slowing inflation and moderating economic growth. While inflation has shown signs of cooling, it remains above target, prompting the BoC to avoid premature easing. At the same time, weaker consumer spending and softening labour market indicators argue against further tightening. As such, holding the rate steady allows policymakers to monitor data and maintain flexibility amid ongoing economic uncertainty. This data is set to be released on 4 June at 1345 GMT.

(BoC Interest Rate Decision Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Thursday, 5 June 2025: [12:15 GMT] Eurozone PPI YoY, [12:15 GMT] ECB Interest Rate Decision

The Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.9% year-over-year in March, and the expected figure for April is likely to moderate slightly, hovering around 1.5% to 1.7%. This anticipated easing reflects continued normalisation in energy and commodity prices compared to last year’s elevated levels, as well as softer input costs across industrial sectors. Slowing global demand and improved supply chain conditions are also contributing to reduced pricing pressure at the producer level. As inflationary forces ease across the region, PPI is expected to follow a downward trajectory, aligning with the broader disinflation trend observed in recent months. This data is set to be released on 5 June at 0900 GMT.

(Eurozone PPI YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The European Central Bank (ECB) previously held its interest rate at 2.4%, while the upcoming decision is expected to lower the rate to 2.15%. This anticipated cut reflects growing confidence that inflation is gradually moving back toward the ECB’s 2% target, supported by declining energy prices, moderating wage growth, and weaker demand across the Eurozone. Additionally, signs of economic stagnation and softening credit conditions may prompt the ECB to ease monetary policy to support growth. The expected reduction aims to strike a balance between maintaining price stability and preventing a deeper economic slowdown. This data is set to be released on 5 June at 1215 GMT.

(ECB Interest Rate Decision Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: Broadcom (AVGO)

Friday, 6 June 2025: [09:00 GMT] Eurozone Retail Sales YoY, [12:30 GMT] U.S. Non-farm Payrolls, [12:30 GMT] Canada Unemployment Rate

Eurozone retail sales grew by 1.5% year-over-year in March, while month-over-month sales dipped by 0.1%. For April, the year-over-year growth is expected to slow to 1.1%, and the month-over-month figure is projected to decline further to -0.3%. This softer outlook reflects waning consumer demand amid persistent economic uncertainty, high borrowing costs, and weak sentiment across the region. Despite a slight annual gain, the downward trend in monthly figures suggests that households are becoming more cautious with spending, particularly on non-essential goods. Additionally, elevated inflation in previous months may have eroded purchasing power, resulting in a more subdued retail environment. This data is set to be released on 6 June at 0900 GMT.

(Eurozone Retail Sales YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, while the expected figure for May is lower at 130,000. This anticipated slowdown in job creation reflects signs of a cooling labour market, as businesses grow more cautious in their hiring amid high interest rates and slowing economic momentum. Sectors such as manufacturing and services have shown signs of deceleration, and recent data on job openings and unemployment claims suggest softening demand for labour. The expected figure also aligns with the Federal Reserve’s aim to ease labour market tightness as part of its broader effort to control inflation without triggering a sharp downturn. This data is set to be released on 6 June at 1230 GMT.

(U.S. Non-farm Payrolls Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Canada's unemployment rate stood at 6.9% in April, with expectations for a slight increase to 7.0% in May. This modest rise likely reflects a gradual softening in the labour market as higher interest rates and slower economic growth weigh on hiring activity. Businesses may be more cautious in expanding their workforce amid ongoing uncertainty and weaker demand, while some sectors could be experiencing layoffs or reduced hours. The expected increase signals a cooling labour market, which aligns with the Bank of Canada’s efforts to moderate inflation by tempering economic activity. This data is set to be released on 6 June at 1230 GMT.

(Canada Unemployment Rate Chart, Source: Trading Central)

When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange) and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and could result in capital loss.

Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.