Week Ahead: Interest Rate Decision from BoJ, Fed, SNB and BoE on Spotlight

From Monday, 16 June to Wednesday, 18 June 2025, key data includes China’s May unemployment rate (expected unchanged at 5.1%, 02:00 GMT) and a rebound in the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (forecast 4, 12:30 GMT). On Tuesday, the BoJ is set to keep rates at 0.5% (03:00 GMT), while U.S. retail sales are expected to rise 5.2% YoY (12:30 GMT). By Wednesday, the UK’s inflation may edge up to 3.6% YoY (06:00 GMT) and the Fed is expected to hold rates at 4.5% (18:00 GMT) as inflation remains elevated.

From Thursday, 19 June to Friday, 20 June, central banks and inflation figures take focus. The SNB is expected to cut rates to 0% (07:30 GMT) while the BoE likely holds at 4.25% (11:00 GMT). Japan’s May inflation is seen steady at 3.6% (23:30 GMT). On Friday, UK retail sales may fall 1.0% MoM (06:00 GMT), and Canada’s PPI is forecast to rise 2.7% YoY (12:30 GMT) on higher input costs.

Monday, 16 June 2025: [02:00 GMT] China Unemployment Rate May, [12:30 GMT] NY Empire State Manufacturing Index June

China’s unemployment rate stood at 5.1% in April, and the same rate is expected for May, indicating a stable labor market outlook. This unchanged forecast likely reflects a balance between ongoing economic recovery efforts and structural challenges such as uneven growth across sectors. While manufacturing and exports have shown signs of resilience, domestic demand and the property sector remain soft, limiting rapid improvements in employment. As a result, economists anticipate labor market conditions to remain steady in the near term without significant shifts in the jobless rate. This data is set to be released on 16 June at 0200 GMT.

(China Unemployment Rate Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at -9.2 for May, but expectations for June suggest a sharp rebound to 4. This projected turnaround likely reflects improving sentiment among manufacturers as supply chain pressures ease and new orders stabilize. The anticipated shift into positive territory suggests analysts foresee a modest expansion in regional manufacturing activity, driven by seasonal demand recovery and potential inventory restocking. The improvement may also be influenced by better macroeconomic indicators or policy support, which could be lifting business confidence despite recent contractions. This data is set to be released on 16 June at 1230 GMT.

( NY Empire State Manufacturing Index Chart , Source: Trading Central)

Tuesday, 17 June 2025: [03:00 GMT] BoJ Interest Rate Decision, [12:30 GMT] U.S. Retail Sales YoY May

The Bank of Japan's most recent interest rate decision held the benchmark rate at 0.5%, and the upcoming decision is also expected to maintain that level. This steady outlook reflects the central bank's cautious approach amid ongoing inflationary pressures and mixed economic signals. While inflation has exceeded the BoJ’s target at times, wage growth and domestic consumption remain fragile, making policymakers hesitant to tighten further. By keeping rates unchanged, the BoJ aims to support a still-recovering economy while monitoring the sustainability of inflation and broader financial conditions. This data is set to be released on 17 June at 0300 GMT.

(BoJ Interest Rate Decision Chart , Source: Trading Central)

The U.S. retail sales year-over-year increase for April came in at +5.2%, and markets expect May’s reading to be around +5.2% as well. This steady forecast reflects a continuation of strong consumer spending, bolstered by solid labor market conditions and wage growth, that is balancing out inflationary pressures and smoothing seasonal fluctuations. Retailers and economists see sustained household demand, alongside ongoing strength in services and online channels, supporting robust year-over-year sales growth even as other economic sectors moderate. This data is set to be released on 17 June at 1230 GMT.

(U.S. Retail Sales YoY Chart , Source: Trading Central)

Wednesday, 18 June 2025: [06:00 GMT] U.K. Inflation Rate YoY May, [18:00 GMT] Fed Interest Rate Decision

The U.K.'s year-over-year inflation rate stood at 3.5% in April, with a slight increase to 3.6% expected for May. This modest uptick likely reflects lingering price pressures in core components such as services and food, even as energy prices stabilize. While overall inflation has been on a downward path from its peak, sticky underlying inflation and wage growth are keeping expectations elevated. The forecasted rise suggests markets anticipate some persistence in cost pressures, delaying the Bank of England’s path toward rate cuts as policymakers remain cautious about declaring inflation fully under control. This data is set to be released on 18 June at 0600 GMT.

(U.K. Inflation Rate YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The Federal Reserve’s most recent interest rate decision held the benchmark rate at 4.5%, and the upcoming decision is expected to maintain it at 4.5%. This steady outlook reflects the Fed’s cautious stance as it monitors a still-resilient labor market and inflation that remains above its 2% target. While economic growth has moderated, underlying inflation pressures remain sticky, prompting policymakers to adopt a wait-and-see approach. By holding rates steady, the Fed aims to ensure inflation is sustainably declining before considering any cuts, with markets now anticipating easing later in the year if disinflation continues. This data is set to be released on 18 June at 1800 GMT.

(Fed Interest Rate Decision Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Thursday, 19 June 2025: [07:30 GMT] SNB Interest Rate Decision, [11:00 GMT] BoE Interest Rate Decision

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) last set its policy rate at 0.25%, but the upcoming decision is expected to lower it to 0%. This anticipated rate cut reflects Switzerland’s relatively subdued inflation environment, which remains well below the levels seen in other advanced economies. With price pressures easing and economic growth showing signs of softness, the SNB is likely aiming to support domestic demand and maintain competitiveness, especially amid a strong franc. A rate cut would align with the central bank’s cautious approach to ensuring price stability without stifling economic momentum. This data is set to be released on 19 June at 0730 GMT.

(SNB Interest Rate Decision Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The Bank of England’s most recent interest rate decision held the benchmark rate at 4.25%, and the upcoming decision is also expected to remain unchanged at that level. This steady forecast reflects the central bank’s cautious balancing act between easing inflation and persistent core price pressures, particularly in services and wages. While headline inflation has moderated, it remains above the BoE’s 2% target, limiting the case for rate cuts. At the same time, signs of slowing economic growth and fragile consumer sentiment argue against further tightening. As a result, markets expect the BoE to maintain its current stance while it monitors data for clearer signals on inflation's trajectory. This data is set to be released on 19 June at 1100 GMT.

(BoE Interest Rate Decision Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Japan’s year-over-year inflation rate came in at 3.6% in April, and the expected value for May is also 3.6%. This stable forecast reflects the persistence of core inflationary pressures, particularly in non-energy components such as food and services. Additionally, Tokyo’s core inflation for May, often viewed as a leading indicator for the national figure, also came in at 3.6%, reinforcing market expectations that the national CPI will remain unchanged. This data is set to be released on 19 June at 2330 GMT.

(Japan Inflation Rate YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Friday, 20 June 2025: [06:00 GMT] U.K. Retail Sales MoM May, [12:30 GMT] Canada PPI YoY May

U.K. retail sales fell by 1.2% month-over-month in April, and the expected figure for May is a slightly smaller decline of 1.0%. This anticipated drop reflects continued pressure on consumer spending due to high living costs and elevated interest rates, which are dampening household demand. The slightly improved forecast suggests that while retail conditions remain weak, the pace of contraction may be slowing as consumers gradually adjust and adapt to the economic environment. This data is set to be released on 20 June at 0600 GMT.

(U.K. Retail Sales MoM Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Canada's producer price index (PPI) rose 2.0% year-over-year in April, and May’s forecasted figure is a stronger 2.7%. This increase anticipates a revival in upstream inflation pressures, driven by higher commodity costs and raw material prices, as global supply chains recalibrate, and energy-related input costs recover. Markets are also factoring in renewed demand from Canada’s export sectors and potential pass-through of elevated input costs, which together support the upward forecast for May’s PPI. This data is set to be released on 20 June at 0600 GMT.

(Canada PPI YoY Chart, Source: Trading Central)

Top US company earnings: Accenture (CAN)

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