Alaska Summit: A Showdown Between a Seasoned Politician and an Inexperienced President?

This Friday, the Russian and American presidents will meet in Alaska, at a summit raising many questions about the future of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Many analysts believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin, a seasoned and experienced politician, may seek to exploit US President Donald Trump, who they consider less experienced in this area.

The stated goal of the summit is to try to negotiate an end to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. However, close observers doubt the possibility of reaching lasting solutions during these talks. Some opinions go even further, considering that Putin does not respect Trump enough.

Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Foresight, says before the meeting: "Let's be clear, Putin doesn't take Trump seriously." She adds: "Putin has intensified his offensive this summer, including targeting civilians in city centers, which angered and frustrated Trump, and frankly, was humiliating." Fordham describes Putin's meeting with Trump as "just a low-cost photo opportunity, and he has a proven track record of manipulating Trump administration officials."

Ukrainian Concerns and European Allies

Ukraine and its European allies share the same concerns, believing that Putin is not serious about ending the conflict that has been going on for more than three years. The Ukrainian leadership announced this week that intelligence indicates that Russia is preparing to launch a new offensive, rather than preparing for a ceasefire or peace.

Military analysts cite several possible reasons for Russia's reluctance to end the conflict before achieving its goals, including the relatively favorable military situation for Russian forces on the ground, despite the high casualties. In addition, Russia has a firm foothold in the areas it occupies in southern and eastern Ukraine, and has the ability to mobilize more troops.

Putin Seeks to Maximize Gains

Putin is likely to try, during his first visit to US soil in nearly a decade, to extract as many concessions and interests as possible from the United States. Andrius Tursa, a consultant for Central and Eastern Europe at Teneo Risk Management, believes that Russia may want to expand the agenda to include issues other than Ukraine, focusing on the potential for geopolitical and economic strategic cooperation, including lucrative energy deals, and potential treaties for the reduction of arms or strategic weapons.

He adds: "The Kremlin may hope that Trump's negotiating approach will help achieve Putin's goals in Ukraine, such as territorial concessions, restricting Ukraine's sovereignty and military capabilities, and changing its political leadership."

Christopher Granville, Managing Director at TS Lombard, believes that the Kremlin is well aware of Trump's bargaining nature in negotiations, which may affect how Putin deals with him, especially since Putin himself is a seasoned negotiator. He points out that Putin has already made a significant gain by being invited to Alaska and negotiating an agreement before a ceasefire, but he has also given Trump something, which is to give the impression that Trump's tough stance has paid off, and that Putin has made concessions regarding land exchange.

Trump's Weaknesses

One of Trump's potential weaknesses at the meeting is Putin's recognition that the US president is reluctant to impose harsher sanctions on Moscow, even in light of Trump's repeated threats to reject the ceasefire agreement supported by the United States and Ukraine. In fact, Trump has so far tended to punish Russia's allies and trading partners, such as India, an oil buyer, by imposing higher tariffs and threatening to impose "secondary sanctions", rather than directly targeting Russia itself.

Fordham emphasizes that Putin is well aware that Trump is exerting increasing pressure, but the most important thing is that Trump chose to pressure Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, rather than Putin himself. She adds that this shows that Trump is completely unwilling to put direct pressure on Putin, and is even willing to jeopardize relations with India for that.

In addition, Trump has been accused of leaking Russian playing cards, by suggesting that the United States might accept Ukraine's "exchange" of parts of its territory with neighboring countries. These statements have raised concerns in Europe, which has urged Trump not to make too many concessions to Putin.

Kaja Kallas, the European Union's foreign policy chief, believes that Putin is dodging Trump, and is "only pretending to negotiate."

Economic Pressures on Russia

Although Putin seems to be in a strong position before the meeting, the Russian president may also be looking for a way out, as the Russian economy and citizens are under severe pressure due to international sanctions, labor shortages, and rampant inflation, which Putin himself has described as "disturbing."

Richard Portes, head of the Economics Department at London Business School, says that Putin starts from a relatively strong starting point militarily, as Russian forces are advancing. But he adds that his starting point is weak economically, as Russia is suffering from a poor economic situation, and a large budget deficit, partly due to the significant decline in oil revenues.

Michael Froman, Chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations and former US Trade Representative, believes that Putin may agree to a ceasefire, but on the condition that Trump makes significant concessions on Russian oil exports. He concludes by saying that if the president can achieve a ceasefire agreement from Alaska, it would be a great achievement, but if they start making territorial deals at the expense of Ukraine, it will not be a good or sustainable agreement.